Oldham

East and Saddleworth

The Oldham East and Saddleworth seat became vacant following Labour's Phil Woolas having his election overturned for making false statements in his campaign literature.

At eight months into the new parliament it would be surprising if the opposition did not make headway and sure enough Debbie Abrahams retained the seat for Labour — I look forward to welcoming her to Westminster.

For Labour this was a reassuring outcome. Ed Miliband has had a lacklustre start as leader and he needed a result here — he got it and many in his party will now feel more settled.

For the Lib Dems the outcome is more nuanced. On the plus side their vote share held up compared with their performance in this seat at the General Election but they have relied on a squeeze of the Conservative vote to bring them home.

That effect is unlikely to be there in the majority of future contests and over the weeks ahead it will be interesting to see what the polling pundits make of the shifting voting patterns in this contest. To what degree were votes effectively 'lent' by Conservative supporters to the Lib Dems to prop them up?

Alternatively, are their warnings here for the Conservatives that they might be losing their purchase on Northern working class support? I will leave these and the other great questions of our time to the psephologists to determine and will await their analysis with interest.

Overall, I believe that the Oldham result was good for the Coalition. It should steady Lib Dem nerves and keep us united as a government. One that is prepared to continue to take the tough decisions that are necessary in the national interest.

And one that will, in time, bring us through and out the other side.