Labour's new Leader

Prior to the leadership announcement, Fraser Nelson of the Spectator, said he could tell by the look on David Miliband's face that he had lost.

I was not so sure — win or lose I assume that there is a sense of shock in the body and therefore no clear sign of which way the dice has rolled. But Mr Nelson was right – it was to be Ed's night. So what does this mean for Labour?

It is widely assumed that David and Ed come from different sides of Labour's great divide, that whereas Dave represents Blair's centrism Ed's soul vests in a more leftist world. Whilst Dave toiled in Blair's policy unit, Ed wrote speeches for Brown.

During the campaign the brothers argued that viewing them through a left/right prism was misplaced and given today's narrower political spectrum I would accept that the gap between them was more about emphasis than substance — but as the contest rolled on Ed pressed harder to stake out a perception of a position somewhere to David's left and closer to the unions who brought victory.

This image of the 'unions' choice' is a tempting target but I counsel caution — Miliband Junior should not be underestimated. I expect him to be as pragmatic in his campaign to become PM as he was clever in his lunge for the leadership.

I expect him, early on, to divest himself of his union associations. He will have plenty of opportunities post the Comprehensive Spending Review as more militant unions kick off. Expect Ed to urge restraint and even support the government on occasion.

To put Ed to the test we need to ask him where the cuts should fall. It is easy to criticise the Coalition's efforts; far less easy to promote your own prescription.